(Jakarta) — Indonesia has rapidly strengthened its position in the global nickel market, with its share of worldwide nickel production rising from around 30% in 2020–2022 to approximately 65–66% in 2025. The increase has made Indonesia by far the world’s largest nickel producer and given the country greater influence over global supply.
The shift highlights the scale of Indonesia’s transformation in the nickel industry over the past several years. With the country now accounting for roughly two-thirds of global production, changes in Indonesian output are increasingly capable of influencing international nickel supply and market conditions.
Septian Hario Seto, Executive Secretary of Indonesia’s National Economic Council, said the increase in Indonesia’s production share has significantly strengthened the country’s position in the global market. With Indonesia controlling around two-thirds of global production, domestic production policies can have a growing impact on international supply and prices.
Data from the U.S. Geological Survey also illustrates the rapid expansion of Indonesia’s nickel production. Indonesia accounted for about 62% of global mined nickel production in 2024, with output estimated at around 2.31 million metric tons of contained nickel, compared with approximately 2.03 million tons in 2023.
The surge followed Indonesia’s decision to ban nickel ore exports in 2020 and push the development of domestic processing facilities. The policy attracted substantial investment into the country’s smelting industry and accelerated the expansion of domestic nickel-processing capacity.
Indonesia’s dominance became even more pronounced in 2025. S&P Global estimated that Indonesia accounted for around 66.6% of global mined nickel production that year, underscoring the country’s growing influence over a market that supplies raw materials to the stainless steel and battery industries.
The scale of Indonesia’s production also creates new challenges for the government. A rapid increase in processing capacity could contribute to an oversupply of nickel if production growth significantly exceeds global demand, putting pressure on international prices.
The expansion of high-pressure acid leach, or HPAL, facilities has become one of the issues attracting attention. Rapid growth in HPAL capacity could increase the supply of nickel intermediates used in battery production and add to pressure on the market if demand fails to keep pace.
The Indonesian government has therefore increasingly focused on managing production rather than simply pursuing higher output. The government’s annual Work Plan and Budget, known as RKAB, has become one of the instruments used to regulate production volumes in response to global supply and demand conditions.
The impact of production management is also reflected in Indonesia’s export performance. Indonesia’s nickel-related exports had reached around US$25 billion to US$26 billion by August 2026 and were projected to reach approximately US$40 billion for the full year, even as nickel volumes measured in metal content declined by around 3.8%.
The value of nickel exports, however, increased by almost 17% during the period. The divergence between lower volumes and higher export value highlights the importance of supply management, pricing and the increasing value of processed nickel products in Indonesia’s export structure.
With Indonesia now accounting for roughly two-thirds of global nickel production, the country’s challenge is increasingly shifting from maximizing output to maximizing the economic value of its resources. Maintaining a balance between mine production, smelter capacity, global demand and prices will be critical as Indonesia seeks to convert its dominant position in the nickel market into greater long-term economic value.
