China Exports Rise Despite Trump Tariffs as Trade Shifts to Asia

BEIJING, October 24, 2026 — China’s foreign trade has proved resilient a year after US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Chinese goods through tariffs and threats of further restrictions. Instead of suffering a sustained decline in exports, Chinese manufacturers expanded sales across Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America, reinforcing Beijing’s strategy of diversifying markets while moving into higher-value manufacturing.

China’s merchandise exports rose 5.5% in 2025 to about US$3.77 trillion, even as shipments to the United States fell 20%, according to data analysed by the European Central Bank. Export growth outside the US helped offset the decline, with shipments to ASEAN rising 13%, the euro area increasing 8%, Latin America gaining 7% and Africa expanding 26%. The shift demonstrated that tariffs could disrupt bilateral trade without necessarily reducing China’s overall export growth.

The momentum accelerated in 2026. China’s total goods trade rose 18.8% year on year to 39.94 trillion yuan, or approximately US$5.94 trillion, during the first nine months. Exports increased 16.4% to 23.2 trillion yuan, while imports climbed 22.3% to 16.74 trillion yuan. In September, exports rose 29.6% from a year earlier and imports increased 24.6%, reflecting strong demand for technology products and industrial inputs. The latest figures suggest that China has adapted to trade pressure, although they do not eliminate the costs imposed by US restrictions.

The United States remains a major market, but its relative importance has diminished as Chinese companies broaden their customer base. ASEAN has become particularly important because its economies combine growing domestic demand with manufacturing networks closely connected to China. Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia participate in regional electronics and industrial supply chains, while Indonesia offers a large consumer market and opportunities in resource processing. Chinese firms supply these economies with machinery, components, chemicals and finished products, strengthening commercial links even as direct exports to the US face higher barriers.

Europe, Africa and Latin America have also helped absorb additional Chinese goods. European buyers continue to purchase machinery, electronics, chemicals and vehicles, although stronger Chinese exports have intensified concerns about competition with domestic manufacturers. African markets offer opportunities in infrastructure equipment, transport products and consumer goods, while Latin American economies purchase manufactured products and industrial inputs. Diversification reduces China’s dependence on any single destination, but it also increases exposure to different regulations, currencies, logistics costs and political risks.

The composition of exports is changing alongside their geography. Electronics, integrated circuits, electrical equipment, industrial robots, electric vehicles and batteries have become increasingly important sources of growth. Chinese customs data show that trade in industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts and electrical equipment exceeded 10 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2026, increasing 58.9% year on year. Integrated-circuit exports surged 99.1%, reflecting demand for semiconductors and computing equipment. The expansion reinforces China’s ambition to compete through manufacturing scale and technological capability rather than relying exclusively on lower-cost goods.

Imports reveal a different side of the adjustment. In 2025, China’s merchandise imports were broadly flat while exports increased, pushing its trade surplus to approximately US$1.19 trillion. The imbalance reflected several factors, including subdued domestic demand and strong export capacity. However, imports grew 22.3% in the first nine months of 2026, outpacing export growth. China continues to purchase crude oil, iron ore, copper, agricultural products, industrial components and other inputs needed by its factories. Whether stronger imports signal a lasting improvement in domestic demand will depend on consumption, investment and commodity prices.

Beijing’s trade strategy increasingly combines market diversification with efforts to secure energy, raw materials and industrial inputs. China maintains commercial relationships with suppliers across the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Asia, reducing the risks associated with excessive dependence on individual sources. Its free-trade partnerships are also becoming more important: trade with China’s free-trade partners increased 30% in the first nine months of 2026, while trade with ASEAN rose 22.7%. These relationships help support regional production networks and provide additional routes for commercial expansion, although they cannot guarantee protection from future trade restrictions.

For companies, the tariff conflict has made supply-chain decisions more complicated. Some exporters have redirected sales towards alternative markets, while others are considering overseas production, local partnerships or more diversified sourcing. Yet moving manufacturing capacity is expensive, and products assembled in Southeast Asia may still rely on Chinese components and machinery. Washington’s scrutiny of transshipment and rules of origin means that routing goods through a third country does not automatically remove tariff exposure. Genuine local production, documentation and compliance are becoming increasingly important for businesses seeking long-term access to the US market.

The broader verdict is that Trump’s tariff offensive has accelerated a reorganisation of China’s trade rather than brought it to a halt. Chinese exporters have expanded into alternative markets, increased shipments of technology-intensive products and maintained their role in regional manufacturing networks. At the same time, the large trade surplus, uneven domestic demand and growing international scrutiny expose the limits of an export-led strategy.